Looping Is Not Reliability: State-Bound Evidence and Typed Revision Contracts for Agentic Code Repair· 代码代理修复中的可靠性问题

Generate--test--revise loops are common in coding agents, but repetition alone provides no reliability guarantee. We study the gap between finding a correct patch and retaining, verifying, and submitting it. A sealed five-seed study over 30 HumanEval repairs produces 900 three-revision trajectories. Under forced revision, current correctness with current traces falls from 0.820 after one revision to 0.673 after two, although ever-correct rises to 0.847. Two common-state studies use 2,430 branches from identical frozen programs to remove post-treatment risk-set bias. In a prespecified 14B replication, stale traces harm 34/135 correct starts versus 4/135 with current traces, a 22.2-point increase (task-cluster 95\% CI $[8.9,37.0]$, exact Holm $p=0.0337$). A prospective 540-rollout policy eli