Beyond Local Surprise: Grounded Dialogue as Selective Belief Revision under Referential Uncertainty· 超越局部惊奇：对话中的选择性信念修正在参照不确定性下

When a speaker refers to a scene that the listener cannot directly see, the listener must decide whether to preserve its current understanding or revise it as new utterances arrive. Many language systems treat local mismatch as a cue for updating: divergence from the current understanding encourages adjustment. Yet conversational understanding may be more conservative, interpreting mismatching evidence relative to prior understanding rather than immediately revising it. We introduce a controlled, data-driven framework for turn-by-turn preserve/revise decisions in dialogue, where competing revision policies are learned under otherwise identical conditions. We compare four theory-driven revision strategies, each reflecting a different assumption about when listeners should preserve or revise