Ladders in Chaos: When, How, (and Perhaps Why) Does Test-Time Scaling Improve LLM Machine Translation· 混沌中的阶梯：测试时缩放如何改善大语言模型机器翻译

Two forms of test-time scaling for Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as effective and widely adopted paradigms: sequential, in which later answer attempts depend on earlier ones, and parallel, such as i.i.d. sampling with reranking. In this study, we investigate their properties in translation. First, our study shows that sequential sampling has a higher performance ceiling, providing a more diverse and effective pool of samples, particularly under smaller sampling budgets. Second, we interrogate the nature of test-time scaling through a multidimensional manual analysis. Human analysis of the Best-of-$N$ translations demonstrates that sequential sampling substantially improves translation fluency and naturalness, but can degrade accuracy when inference budgets are large. Finally, w