When Agents Disagree: Bayesian Backward Reasoning as a Label-Free Anchor for Multi-Agent Collective Decision-Making· 代理冲突时的贝叶斯反向推理

When multiple LLM agents yield conflicting answers, the decision-making process dictates whether agent diversity improves performance or merely compounds shared errors. Existing collective decision-making methods, including voting, electoral rules, and LLM judges, rely on forward reasoning: they map evidence to labels in one direction. Although these methods can combine diverse forward traces, they still aggregate estimates that share this evidence-to-label factorization and can inherit correlated errors within the forward pool. We therefore construct a reverse posterior for each instance through Bayesian backward reasoning from an explicit likelihood. The forward and reverse posteriors provide differently factorized approximations of the underlying posterior. Because estimates from differ