TimeLitmus: A Diagnostic Benchmark for Cross-Modal Understanding and Explanation Faithfulness in Event-Conditioned Time-Series Prediction· 跨模态理解与解释忠实性的诊断基准

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to make predictions from numerical time-series histories and textual events. Yet accuracy alone cannot reveal whether correct answers reflect effective integration of the two inputs or instead arise from event polarity, unimodal priors, or superficial cues. Likewise, plausible explanations may rationalize predictions without faithfully reflecting the evidence that drives model behavior. We introduce TimeLitmus, a diagnostic benchmark for cross-modal understanding and explanation faithfulness in event-conditioned time-series prediction. TimeLitmus contains 4,856 evaluation records across Finance and Traffic, combining natural prediction with controlled counterfactual and contrastive interventions, explanation-targeted faithfulness tests, an