The SIMPLE Law for Energy Cost of LLM Inference· 大模型推理能耗的SIMPLE法则

Generative AI is billed per token, yet tokens are not equally expensive. Each token enters the KV-cache and raises the cost of those that follow, so energy grows non-linearly along a sequence whose tokens look identical. No analytical model states what a token costs, and the most accurate SOTA model is a fit, not a law: it absorbs architecture into fitted coefficients, requiring per-LLM fitting. We derive closed-form expressions of the computational and memory-access complexity of LLM inference in terms of architectural hyperparameters, covering MHA and GQA, and compare a family of analytical models of increasing granularity. From these, we obtain the SIMPLE Inference Model to Predict LLMs Energy (SIMPLE), a four-parameter law that separates prefill from decode, and decode into KV-cache co